Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut continue to rise, boosting risk appetite, with European stocks closing higher for two consecutive days, with French and British stock indices both rising by more than 0.8%, led by bank stocks.

The UK general election is scheduled for Thursday, with multiple polls before the election showing that the Labour Party is expected to win by a landslide, ending the Conservative Party's 14-year rule. The FTSE 100 index in the UK has seen its gains widen, rising for two consecutive days, while the pound has temporarily stabilized. After the polls closed, exit polls indicated that the Labour Party is expected to win with 410 seats out of a total of 650, likely forming the next UK government, with the pound fluctuating slightly against the US dollar.

As polls suggest that Le Pen is likely to lose her majority in the French National Assembly election, the CAC 40 index in France has seen its gains expand, with the euro strengthening.

The latest meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both show that, despite increased confidence in the inflation outlook, policymakers recognize that the battle against inflation is not yet over, and the exact pace at which inflation will return to target remains uncertain, adding to the uncertainty of central bank policy prospects. Looking ahead, traders continue to focus on Friday's US non-farm employment data for clues on the outlook for rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. The market expects 190,000 new non-farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4%.

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European stocks rose across the board, closing higher for two consecutive days, with French and British indices rising by more than 0.8%.

On Thursday, European stocks rose in unison, with French and British stock indices closing up by more than 0.8%, and the Dutch stock index reaching a new historical closing high:

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.56% at 517.54 points. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed up 0.44% at 4987.48 points. The FTSE Eurotop 300 index closed up 0.52%.

The German DAX 30 index closed up 0.41%, the French CAC 40 index closed up 0.83%, the Italian FTSE MIB index closed up 0.77%, the Spanish IBEX 35 index closed up 0.09%, and the UK FTSE 100 index closed up 0.86%.

The Dutch AEX index closed up 0.40% at 934.82 points, breaking through the historical closing high of 933.84 points set on June 20th, with a cumulative rebound of 1.28% in the last three trading days.

Most sectors of the European STOXX 600 rose, with the banking sector leading the way with a 1.3% gain, and the automotive sector closing up 0.76%, achieving two consecutive days of gains.In the European stock market's "Eleven Thieves," on Wednesday, a research report from Harvard's "Otorhinolaryngology" department showed that Novo Nordisk's best-selling weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy carry a higher risk of vision loss for patients. However, some doctors have pointed out that further validation on a larger scale in more hospitals is still needed. Affected by this news, Novo Nordisk's stock price opened low on Thursday, reaching a daily low of 974.50, but ultimately closed up by 0.26%, withstanding the impact of the Harvard research report.

Furthermore, Novartis closed up by 1.18%, while Sanofi, AstraZeneca, LVMH Group, L'Oréal, GlaxoSmithKline, and Nestlé rose by 0.85% to 0.43%. ASML closed down by 0.16%, Germany's SAP fell by 0.34%, and Roche fell by 0.89%.

Among the more volatile stocks:

- Danish weight loss drug company Zealand closed up by 5.4%, setting a new historical high for the closing price.

- Automotive parts giant Continental AG in Germany led the European STOXX 600 index with a 9.54% increase, as Citigroup analysts upgraded the stock rating to "Buy" and noted its automotive business performed well in the second quarter, driving the automotive sector up, with Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Porsche's stock prices all rising by more than 1%.

- Meal kit service company Hellofresh rose by 10%, with a weekly cumulative increase of nearly 33%. JPMorgan Chase removed the company from its "Negative Catalyst Watch List," believing that the stock would have negative factors driving it down, as meal kit consumption in North America tends to stabilize.

European bond yields generally rose, with 10-year German and UK bond yields both increasing by more than 2 basis points.

At the end of the day, European bond yields generally rebounded. The 10-year German bund yield, a benchmark for the eurozone, rose by 2.3 basis points to 2.608%. The two-year German bund yield increased by 2.4 basis points to 2.943%.

Additionally, the 10-year French government bond yield rose by 2.9 basis points, the 10-year Italian government bond yield increased by 1.5 basis points, the 10-year Spanish government bond yield rose by 1.8 basis points, and the 10-year Greek government bond yield increased by 1.9 basis points. The 10-year UK government bond yield rose by 2.7 basis points to 4.198%.

On Thursday this week, France issued government bonds for the second time since President Macron announced a provisional election, further indicating that market concerns about French fiscal risks are easing. Data shows that the yield gap between 10-year French and German government bonds has significantly narrowed, from a high of 86 basis points last week to 68 basis points.Analyst Onuekwusi from St. James noted: "The market is clearly more at ease with the political risks in France. At present, investors see investment value in the French market, as Macron has formed a partnership with the left-wing coalition, which helps to avoid vote dispersion, beneficial for the second round of elections and the bond market."

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies including the euro, fell by 0.25% to 105.137 points.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.26%, reporting at 1262.58 points.

The offshore renminbi (CNH) rose by 93 points against the US dollar to 7.2939 yuan, with overall trading within the range of 7.3050-7.2917 yuan.

Among Asian currencies, the US dollar fell by 0.25% against the Japanese yen, reporting at 161.28, with a suspected significant drop related to Japanese authorities' intervention around 09:00 Beijing time, overall holding steady near the 161.95 level reached on July 3.

The euro rose by 0.23% against the US dollar, the British pound rose by 0.14% against the US dollar, and the US dollar fell by 0.16% against the Swiss franc; among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose by 0.3% against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar rose by 0.23% against the US dollar, and the US dollar fell by 0.2% against the Canadian dollar.

Most mainstream cryptocurrencies fell. The largest market cap leader, Bitcoin, fell by 2.18% to $58,520.00, the lowest level since May 1st, once breaking below the $57,000 threshold during trading, with the second-largest Ethereum falling by 4.33%, reporting at $3,135.00.

Before the US stock market opened, Bitcoin was heavily sold, and the price plummeted to a new daily low, falling to as low as $56,976 per coin, breaking below the $57,000 threshold, then partially recovering. Other coins were not spared, with Ethereum's 24-hour drop once exceeding 5%, and Dogecoin's 24-hour drop reaching 10%. Coinglass data shows that over the past 24 hours, more than 130,000 people have been liquidated in the virtual currency market, with a total liquidation amount of $375 million (approximately 2.71 billion yuan), of which long positions were liquidated for $341 million and short positions for $34.199 million.

The China Securities Journal pointed out that this flash crash mainly stemmed from the unfounded market rumor that "Ethereum spot ETF will officially start trading on July 4th." In addition, the latest meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve reiterated a wait-and-see stance, indicating the need to wait for more information to gain confidence in interest rate cuts.According to CoinGecko data, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen below $2.3 trillion, with a 24-hour decline of 3.4%, resulting in the evaporation of over $78.2 billion (approximately 568.5 billion yuan) in market value. Additionally, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a cumulative net outflow of $20.5 million yesterday (July 3rd, Eastern Time).

Brent crude oil remains above $87, reaching the highest level since April

Influenced by the decline in US crude oil inventories, international crude oil futures continued to rise on Thursday. Brent September crude oil futures closed up by $0.09, a 0.10% increase, at $87.43 per barrel, marking the highest closing price since April. WTI August crude oil futures did not have closing data due to the US financial market holiday, but as of press time, it was up by about 0.21%, reaching an 11-week high.

When hitting the daily low, US oil fell by more than 1% to $83.02 per barrel, and Brent oil dropped by nearly 1% to $86.51 per barrel. When reaching the daily high, US oil rose by nearly 0.37% to $84.19 per barrel, and Brent oil once increased by nearly 0.29%, touching above $87.50 during the session.

Analysis suggests that the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories indicates growing oil demand, and the weak economic data in the US has accelerated expectations for interest rate cuts, which is expected to continue to boost oil prices.

On the other hand, on Thursday evening local time, geopolitical tensions escalated, with the Israeli military claiming to have attacked several military buildings of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Earlier in the day, the Israeli military reported that an attack by Hezbollah in northern Israel resulted in the death of an Israeli military officer. Martin King, an energy analyst at the Royal Bank of Scotland, stated: "People are watching the physical market and geopolitical situations. Traders are also paying attention to the Gaza war as well as the elections in France and the UK."

Furthermore, the latest report indicates that Hurricane "Beryl" is impacting the US oil industry, leading to the evacuation of drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico by several energy giants, including Shell, BP, and ExxonMobil. According to estimates from the National Hurricane Center and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, approximately 73,000 barrels per day of federal offshore oil production areas are expected to be directly affected by this storm. However, some media outlets mentioned on Thursday that some major drilling platforms, such as ExxonMobil's Hoover platform, Occidental Petroleum's Boomvang platform, and Shell's Perdido platform, have fortunately avoided the storm's path, and it is anticipated that the oil production from these platforms will not suffer significant losses.

Additionally, Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company, has reduced the price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for August sales to Asia to $1.80 per barrel above the average price of Oman/Dubai.

UBS expects that crude oil prices may rise to $90 per barrel this quarter as inventories decrease. Strategist Giovanni Staunovo stated that due to strong demand and limited supply growth, oil inventories have begun to decline, and investors have started to increase their exposure to oil again. The bank anticipates that "the decline in oil inventories will intensify" in the coming weeks as OPEC+ continues to cut production this quarter. OPEC's crude oil exports fell in June and are likely to remain low this month. This year, crude oil demand is expected to grow by 1.5 million barrels per day.

Gold prices have slightly retreated, while London copper has risen for five consecutive days, and London aluminum closed down by more than 1%.COMEX August gold futures closed down about 0.16% at $2,365.7 per ounce; COMEX July silver futures closed down about 0.53% at $30.68 per ounce.

During the Asian morning session, when the spot gold price hit a daily high, it rose by 0.27% or $6.41, breaking through the round figure of 2360. Spot silver reached a peak increase of 0.29%, approaching the round figure of 30.60. Subsequently, both gold and silver continued to decline, and before the European stock market opened, the spot gold price fell nearly 0.23% or $5.33 to its lowest point of the day, while spot silver fell nearly 1% to its lowest.

London industrial base metals generally fell:

The economic indicator "Dr. Copper" closed up $14, at $9,882 per ton, with a cumulative increase of more than 3.84% since the close on June 27. London aluminum closed down $26, a decrease of 1.02%. London zinc closed down $4, at $2,986 per ton. London lead closed up $4, at $2,226 per ton. London nickel closed down $106, at $17,217 per ton. London tin closed down $205, at $33,158 per ton.

In addition, the Shanghai lead night session closed up more than 1%, while Shanghai nickel fell by 1.1%.